Another Publication Of An Unverifiable Multi-Decadal Climate Prediction: “Cold Spells In A Warming World”
I was alerted to an article and news releases on the prediction of cold outbreaks decades from now [h/t Ned Niklov]. The researchers are affiliated with Oak Ridge National Laboratory. That is relevant to me as I was on science review panel at Oak Ridge several years ago where one of our major recommendations was that they assess the predictability of climate forecasts starting as an initial value problem. This would have been a robust scientific approach as observations can be used to test the skill of the multi-decadal predictions.
However, this article (and the climate modeling research program at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, if this paper is typical) has been derailed from the proper assessment of the skill at climate prediction.
Instead, as illustrated in the paper below, they have adopted the scientifically flawed approach of making regional climate forecasts decades into the future. The journal, Geophysical Research Letters, by accepting such a prediction paper, is similarly compromising robust science. (Roger Pielke Sr.)
New paper shows how natural ocean oscillations control climate
According to climate scientist Dr. Roger Pielke Sr., “A very important new paper has been accepted for publication in Climate Dynamics,” titled Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation And Northern Hemisphere’s Climate Variability. The paper shows how the climate of the Northern Hemisphere can be explained by a combination of the natural ocean cycles called the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), without incorporating greenhouse gases. The graph below, from a poster associated with the paper, shows how the Northern Hemisphere (NH) surface temperature “can be nearly perfectly represented as a weighted sum of the AMO and PDO” natural ocean oscillations. IPCC models do not incorporate ocean oscillations and are purposely programmed to instead attempt to “prove” CO2 controls climate rather than natural factors such as ocean oscillations and solar variability. (Hockey Schtick)
